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Prediction for CME (2023-12-24T13:25:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-12-24T13:25Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/28321/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the north in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 coronagraph imagery. The source is a large filament eruption spanning N45W20 to N35W55 which begins to lift-off, appearing to deflect northward, around 2023-12-24T12:45Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Post-eruptive brightening is also visible in SDO AIA 171 and 193 imagery starting around 13:30Z. Arrival signature: Likely but not characteristic CME arrival/sheath with magnetic field enhancement to just below 8nT, followed at ~2023-12-27T20Z by a likely start of a flux rope showing smooth rotation of magnetic field components and possibly indicating a glancing blow from a CME since components run in parallel. The arrival time might be even earlier since there is a data gap in DSCOVR from 2023-12-27T07:16Z to 08:26Z (also overlapping by an even larger gap in ACE data). This arrival could alternatively be attributed to the arrival of 2023-12-24T16:12Z CME.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T08:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-12-27T14:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 45.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 31225
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Dec 2023, 1441UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Dec 2023  10CM FLUX: 182 / AP: 003 
PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Dec 2023  10CM FLUX: 180 / AP: 004 
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Dec 2023  10CM FLUX: 178 / AP: 013

Coronal mass ejections:  A halo coronal mass ejection (CME) was reported by the CACTUS automated detection tool with an estimated launch time around
14:00 UTC on Dec 24th. This is an erroneous automated detection, which consists of two separate CMEs, related to filament eruptions in the north- west and the south-east quadrant. The first CME lift off was visible in the LASCO C2 coronagraph images before UTC noon on Dec 24th and the second CME one was launched around 15:48 UTC on Dec 24th. Both CMEs have clear on-disc signatures and are accompanied by a coronal dimming. An initial analysis suggests a possible combined glancing blow arrival from these CMEs on Dec 27th.

Lead Time: 38.82 hour(s)
Difference: -5.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2023-12-25T17:37Z

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